Historically, the public likes betting on good teams and there is often carryover between seasons, whether or not it is deserved. For example, in 2011, the Boston Bruins won their first Stanley Cup title since 1972.
As a result, the Bruins have been a favorite of the betting public so far in 2011.
Through eleven games, Boston has been a public underdog, in terms of moneyline betting trends, only once. More importantly, fading the Bruins has been very profitable for those following a contrarian betting system.
In seven games this season, Boston’s opponents have received fewer than 40% of moneyline wagers, six of which resulted in Bruins losses.
The table below shows how fading Boston, when receiving fewer than 40% of moneyline wagers, has performed this season
Kyle Orton is out, Tim Tebow is in. That sentence is music to the ears of Broncos fans everywhere. Denver has struggled to a 1-4 record and last week’s bye gave the coaches the opportunity to install Timmy Ra-Ra as the teams’ starting quarterback. Situs Judi Bola Online Resmi
According to Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends data, the largest percentage of spread wagers the Broncos have received in a single game this season was 58% in their Week 1 loss to Oakland.
Since then, the percentage of spread bets on Denver has decreased every week, bottoming out at 22% in Week 5.
However, with Tebow now running the show, the Broncos have received 74% of spread wagers for this week’s game against the Dolphins.
That is a 52% increase from their most recent game and a 16% increase from their previous season high in Week 1.
The graph below illustrates how Denver’s spread betting percentages have fluctuated throughout the season. Please note that Week 6 was the Broncos’ bye week and therefore is not included.
Whether the current betting trends are a vote against the Dolphins or an influx of newly disposable billboard money from Broncos fans, the public has jumped on Denver for the first time this season.
For the record, this is a very small sample and there’s a good chance we’ll see an overreaction in the betting trends next week based on Tebow’s performance Sunday, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t value being created for this week’s game.
As our NFL Marketwatch readers know, we consider games with 65% or more spread bets on one team as “lopsided-bet” games. These are games we analyze for contrarian value and opportunities to Bet Against the Public.
Miami opened as a 3-point favorite at Pinnacle and, at the time of publication, the one-sided betting has moved the line down to -1. More square money is likely to come down on Tebow as the week goes on, so it’ll be interesting to see how the line moves and whether there is enough value to include this game as a NFL Square Play Sunday.
The weekly, nationally broadcast NFL games, like Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football, give sports bettors an opportunity to make up for losses incurred during the normal slate of Sunday afternoon games.
This process is often referred to as chasing, as the betting public is chasing games they normally wouldn’t bet in an attempt to get even on the week. As a result, sportsbooks see exponentially more action on these games and, since the public generally likes betting on favorites, this action is often one-sided, in terms of NFL spread betting trends.